ျမန္မာျပည္အတြက္ မုန္တုိင္းသတိေပးခ်က္...

အထူးအေရးႀကီးသတင္း ( မုန္တိုင္း )

ၿမန္မာႏိုင္ငံသို.မုန္တိုင္းကို

ဝင္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္လို႕ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါတယ္၊ ေတာ္ေတာ္ျပင္းမယ္လို႕ခန္.မွန္းထားၾကပါတယ္
၁၄ရက္ - ေမမွာလို႔ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါတယ္ အေရးေပၚျပင္ဆင္ထားဖို့လိုပါတယ္........

Tropical storm One is forecast to strike Myanmar as a severe cyclonic storm at about 19:00 GMT on 14 May.

Tropical storm One is forecast to strike Myanmar as a severe cyclonic storm at about 19:00 GMT on 14 May.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near20.0 N,92.8 E.One is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 166 km/h (103 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofOne'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL).

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

"မဟာဆန္" MAHASEN (သို႔) ဆိုုင္ကလုန္းျဖစ္လာႏိုုင္ဖြယ္ရွိသည့္ မုုန္တိုုင္းငယ္ ေရြ႔လ်ားလ်က္ရွိ
Saturday, May 11, 2013

ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ ေတာင္ပိုင္းတြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚခဲ့သည့္ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း 92B သည္ ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာၿပီး မုန္တိုင္းငယ္အျဖစ္သို႕
ေရာက္ရွိလာကာ မုန္တိုင္းအမည္ 01B ဟု အမည္ေပးထားပါသည္။ (၂ဝ၁၃ ခုႏွစ္မုန္တိုင္းရာသီအတြင္း ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္တြင္ ပထမဦးဆံုး
ျဖစ္ေပၚသည့္ မုန္တိုင္း ျဖစ္ပါသည္)

မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B သည္ အိႏိၵယႏိုင္ငံ ပို႕ဘလဲယားၿမိဳ႕ ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၄၃ဝ ခန္႕၊ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ေကာ့ေသာင္းၿမိဳ႕ အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၅ဝဝ ခန္႕၊ ကိုကိုးကၽြန္းေလဆိပ္၏ ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၆ဝဝ ေက်ာ္ခန္႕၊ ပုသိမ္ၿမိဳ႕၏ ေတာင္-အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၈ဝဝ ခန္႕ ပင္လယ္ျပင္တြင္ ဗဟိုျပဳေနၿပီး လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၁၂ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းခန္႕ျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။

မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B ONE(92B)
10 May 2013 1200Z
Location: 5.3 92.7
Winds: 35 knots
Central Pressure: 996 hPa

မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B သည္ – ေမလ(၁ဝ)ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၈၃ဝ နာရီခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္အရ လာမည့္ ၄၈ နာရီ – ေမလ(၁၂)ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၈၃ဝ နာရီ အတြင္း အဆင့္(၁) ဆိုင္ကလုန္း မုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္သို႕
ေရာက္ရွိမည္ျဖစ္ၿပီး ေျမာက္-အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ ဆက္လက္ ေရြ႕လ်ားကာ လာမည့္ ၉၆ နာရီ – ေမလ(၁၄)ရက္
ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၈၃ဝ နာရီတြင္ အဆင့္-၂ ဆိုင္ကလုန္း
မုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိကာ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္(ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ရခိုင္ျပည္နယ္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းသို႕) ဆက္လက္ဦးတည္ေရြ႕လ်ားမည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါသည္။ မုန္တိုင္း 01B သည္ အဆင့္-၂ ဆိုင္ကလုန္း မုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္ျဖင့္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ရခိုင္ကမ္းရိုးတန္းအား စစ္ေတြႏွင့္
ေက်ာက္ျဖဴၿမိဳ႕မ်ားၾကားမွ ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ ဝင္ေရာက္ႏိုင္ဘြယ္ ရွိေၾကာင္း JTWC ႏွင့္ TSR တို႕မွ ကနဦး ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္တြင္ ပံုမ်ားျဖင့္
ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။ မုန္တိုင္းအင္အားႏွင့္ လားရာလမ္းေၾကာင္း ေျပာင္းလဲမႈ အေျခအေန ရွိႏိုင္ဦးမည္ ျဖစ္ပါသျဖင့္ အဆိုပါ အျပည္ျပည္ဆိုင္ရာ မိုးေလဝသဌာနခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္ အသစ္မ်ားကို ဆက္လက္ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ တင္ျပေပးသြားပါမည္။

ေကာလဟလ သတင္းမ်ားအား ေရွာင္ရွားႏိုင္ရန္ မုန္တိုင္းအမည္ေပး စနစ္တြင္ ၂ဝ၁၂ ခုႏွစ္အတြင္း အိႏိၵ သမုဒၵရာေျမာက္ပိုင္း၌ ျဖစ္ေပၚခဲ့သည့္ မုန္တိုင္းမ်ားအား ေအာက္ပါအတိုင္း ေပးခဲ့ၿပီးျဖစ္ပါသည္-

Tropical Storm MURJAN-24-25 OCT
Tropical Storm NILAM-29-31 OCT

ထို႕ေၾကာင့္ မုန္တိုင္းငယ္ 01B ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာၿပီး ဆိုင္ကလုန္း မုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာပါက အျပည္ျပည္ဆိုင္ရာအမည္ MAHASEN ဟု ေပးမည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။ (သီရိလကၤာမွ ေပးသည့္ အမည္ ေပးရန္ အလွည့္က်ပါသည္)

Myanmar Weather

ေနာက္ဆံုးရ သတင္းေတြကို အခ်ိန္ႏွင့္ တေျပးညီ တစ္ေနရာထဲမွာ သိခ်င္ရင္ Myanmar Online News ကို like လုပ္ထားပါ

"92B" is now "01B" - Cyclone !

Latest analysis show, that yesterday's weak LOW has intensified into a Deep Depression or a Cyclone. Now its named as "01 B" - Cyclone., Soon it will be named as " Mahesan " Present location is 5.1 N , 93.3 E (S-E Bay) Pressure around 996 mb Winds gusting up to 65 Kmph
2:30pm, Visible Satellite shot shows Good convective activity over S,S-W, W, N-E Quadrant of the system.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF 
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE, 
WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE 
EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH 
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT 
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, 
A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT 
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE 
SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS 
LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER 
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE 
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO 
MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN 
BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO 
DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
100600Z IS 10 FEET.

MODEL forecast:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Latest NOGAPS model suggest that "01 B" is expected to track North into Bay and then N-E towards North Myanmar coast. Landfall expected on 15-May. COLA and IMD model also agrees to this prediction.

Meanwhile, South West monsoon will be over S-E Bay and over South Andaman Islands on 12-May-2013.

Tourist warning :: Monsoon and Cyclone is near +Andaman Holidays +Andaman World Travel